Green Tinted Glasses » Pregrame Previews

Niners head to Beltwayland to take on Foggy Bottom Colonials

NLP — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 04:00:15 +0000

GW's backcourt handing out another mugging.

Part II of perhaps the most intense on-court rivalry the Niners have had since joining the A10 is set to renew again Saturday night at 6 PM in Charles Dump Arena in Washington against the George Washington Colonials. The Niners find themselves again in a must-win situation if they want to maintain any hopes of an at-large NCAA bid, a goal that seemed to be a distant memory until Ian Andersen and Gokhan Sirin erupted for 30 points as the Niners thrashed the Saint Joseph’s Hawks Wednesday in Halton Arena. MASN, our favorite network to lose on, will provide TV coverage.

The last time these two teams met earlier this month it was a hard fought contest which left DiJuan Harris searching for one of CMPD’s finest to press charges for assault and battery. The intense GW defense, which at times bordered on dirty, frustrated the Niners and had the game all but secured at the 1:25 mark leading by 5. The Niner backcourt would have none of that, forcing a pair of turnovers and hitting clutch foul shots to secure a well-deserved 72-68 victory.

In the rematch, the key for the Niners is going to be pretty simple -contain Damian Hollis. He’s an absolute Niner-killer and was certainly a handful scoring 23 points including 4 for 5 from 3 point land. He’ll be a difficult matchup for whoever guards him, as he’s a bit too athletic for Braswell, Spears, and Jones, and a bit too tall for Wilderness and Dewhurst. I would expect Lutz to again dare him to shoot from outside, although that’s increasingly becoming a bad idea has Hollis recently hit 6 of 10 from outside against Fordham.

Freshmen. Lasan Kromah and Dwayne Smith will also merit considerable attention as both appear to be improving their play as the season progresses, looking more like Sophomores than first years. Smith in particular has steadily improved his scoring, hitting double figures in 5 of his last 8 games including 21 points against a depleted La Salle squad.

For more on the GW squad, visit the previous pre-game.

Looking at the Niners offensively, it’s a question of which team will show up. The team dazzled fans with their shooting against an inferior Saint Joseph’s squad to reverse a trend of awful shooting recently. Even Ian Andersen, who’s struggled throughout the season found the range. Hopefully that will continue as the Niners absolutely need scoring off the bench, particularly from outside. Though Ian’s struggles on defense are well-documented, he does know the offense well and if he’s hitting his shots, it’s worth having him out there.

This game is going to be war. A lot will depend on how closely the refs call it. The Niners will prefer to score at the charity stripe and get calls for all the bumps and handchecks DiJuan Harris will undoubtedly receive. For vets of the CUSA days, the Colonials play us a lot like UAB used to play us. Constant bumping and reaching for the ball. It also seemed that the refs would swallow their whistles and let our players get mugged. Honestly I’m expecting nothing different. It will be interesting to see if the zest for the game the team showed Wednesday against the Hawks can survive the physical and down-right dirty play of GW. If it does, expect the Niners to gut out another victory.

Niners set to take on Hawks, hope to return to winning ways.

NLP — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 04:05:58 +0000

February is the make of break month for most teams with aspirations for at-large bids to the NCAA tournament. Unfortunately for the Niners (18-8, 8-4), it’s been the latter case as they have dropped 3 straight A10 contests to drop to 2-3 for the month. Wednesday night the Niners hope to set their course back in a winning direction when they host the Saint Joseph’s Hawks (9-18, 3-10).

During the stretch of losses, a common theme has been a dichotomy of shooting. In plain english the Niners are shooting like crap and opponents are shooing lights out, and there’s no in-between. Never a good recipe during the stretch run of the season. The last two losses have been especially difficult to stomach as they have come on the court of Halton Arena and both featured Niner leads that were put away with lengthy runs, with the opponent never looking back after ripping the lead away.

Perhaps Saint Joe's needs the cruel tutelage of Pai Mei.

The goods news is we’re playing Saint Joseph’s tomorrow (although I thought the same thing when we played Fordham… we know how that went). The Hawks are struggling under Phil Martelli this season, who is typically billed amongst the best coaches in the league. It’s surprising to see a team with a fair amount of upperclassmen leadership struggling so mightily, particular under Martelli’s leadership.

Statistically, the Hawks have done little well this season as they rank amongst the bottom of the nation in rebounding (minus 9 in this category, ouch), field goal percentage, and 3-point shooting. Not a combination that’s particularly conducive to winning, though they do get to the line somewhat frequently.

Personnel wise, Saint Joseph’s gets most of its production from a trio of upperclassmen. Darrin Govens leads the team in scoring as a 6’0 Sr. G, putting up 13.1 ppg. on 38.2% shooting from the field. The bulk of his baskets come from behind the arc though, so his shooting percentage is somewhat deflated by his tendency to shoot the three-point shot. Though he doesn’t particularly excel from long range, he hits 33.7% of his attempts and considering the volume he attempts, his perimeter game warrants considerable attention from the Niners “defense”. Garrett Williamson is 2nd on the team in scoring and is the top assist distributor for the Hawks, averaging 12.1 ppg. and 3.7 apg. on the season. The Sr. swingman is much more of slasher than Govens, preferring to score at the rim or drawing fouls and getting to the line -Govens leads the team in FTAs. As this has been a particular weakness for the Niners this season, it will be interesting to see how Bobby Lutz divvies up defensive responsibilities to account for the contrasting styles of Williamson and Govens.

The top post player this season for the Hawks is 6’7 Jr. F Idris Hilliard. Hilliard scores 10.2 ppg. on 47% shooting and is a marksman from outside, connecting on 1-7 from the arc. Watch me jinx us and he goes 11-14 from 3. I might have to bring some lighter fluid to this game in case self-immolation is required.

Though the Hawks have struggled mightily this season they do get regular contributions from some underclassmen that hope to be impact players going forward. Todd O’Brien is a 6’11 So. C who leads the in rebounding (a modest 6.2 rpg.) and 5.6 ppg. Carl Jones is also a frequent contributor scoring 9.3 ppg. on 35.4% shooting, with about half his makes coming from behind the arc.

To win this game the Niners need to follow a very simple but suddenly elusive recipe: Make shots, and keep the other team from doing the same. Against Dayton the Niners shot 25% from the field. Dayton shot 48.1%. In the following game against Duquesne the Dukes shot 48.4% to the Niners’ 32.8%. On Saturday versus Xavier, the Niners shot 36.5% and the Musketeers 52%. You won’t win many games that way. One saving grace is the Niners tend to draw a lot of fouls, which can mitigate poor shooting; however, it seemed Shamari Spears despite his best efforts couldn’t get a whistle to save his life against Xavier. Now I’m not one to cry sour grapes since we couldn’t hit a shot or stop Xavier, but if Spears can get some foul calls, perhaps a 12 point game is really a 6 point game going down the stretch and who knows what can happen

NLP after the game if Idris Hilliard has his way.

then. Still, despite the difficult day I’ve been impressed with Spears’ effort on both ends. Though not a natural defender by any means he’s rebounded better and even managed one hell of a block shot. Keep it up Sherman!

One player who’s continued to struggle of late has been Derrio Green. The dynamic Sophomore has been a revelation at the SG position but may have hit the wall a bit in his first season at DI play. Though the future remains exceptionally bright for

Derrio,the present must seem like an abyss to him. I do like his attitude and don’t think he’s really been forcing shots, so hopefully it’s merely a slump he can play his way out of.

In the grand scheme of things, it’s time to just set aside the idea of the NCAA tournament and focus on the immediate. For anything good to come out of the remainder of the season, the Niners need to focus on Wednesday’s game and Wednesday’s game only. The winning has evaporated and play on both ends of the court has suffered. These are the times where a player needs to emerge from the pack and lead this team forward. Whether it’s DiJuan Harris, Shamari Spears, or a newcomer, someone has to take on the onus of winning and bring the team along with him. Can we do it? At least tomorrow night, I say yes.

Game #must win vs. Xavier, Homecoming edition.

NLP — Sat, 20 Feb 2010 03:04:52 +0000

Can DiJuan rally the troops and turn the season around?

It’s time for our annual out-of-season Homecoming contest as the Niners set to host the Xavier Musketeers. It’s been a rough two game stretch for the Niners as they’ve dropped games in the most painful of fashions, losing on the road to Dayton and again on Wednesday at home to Duquesne. The struggles come at a critical time for the team as most squads are looking to cement their NCAA resumes. For the Niners, another loss could instead be the death knell for any hopes of such a trip to the tournament, forcing the team to have to win what will likely be a highly-competitive A10 tournament. In other words, Saturday’s game is an absolute must-win.

The formula for beating the Niners, which I’ve mentioned time and again, has become common knowledge amongst coaches. It was clearly on display Saturday. The Niners ran up a 10 point lead in the second half, and Duquesne responded with pressure, steals, forcing turnovers, easy buckets, and a 16-1 run to take a lead they wouldn’t relinquish. Although Xavier isn’t the most defensively astute team, unless something drastic changes, they will be tomorrow if they play tough man-to-man defense and harass the Niner backcourt. It’s becoming a sour realization in another otherwise very successful season and it threatens to undo all the hard work the team has put in this season. But the path back is clear: Just win baby. This is the same team that ran Louisville off their court and thoroughly dominated Richmond on the road and Temple at home. The talent is there, but will the execution?

In the first meeting the execution certainly was there… for Xavier. The Musketeers hit 53% from the field overall and had a balance of inside and outside scoring, with 4 players scoring in double figures, led by Jordan Crawford’s 18 points. The Niners for their part played smart basketball, but just couldn’t get the early shots needed to stay competitive. They also suffered from abysmal outside shooting all game long, hitting just 2 of 22. The bright spots were less turnovers than Xavier (15 vs. 16) and 59% shooting from inside the arc.

The recipes for both teams should be relatively simple: For X, they should go true and tested and play tough man defense against the Niners and force turnovers. It’s worked for teams all season long. For the Niners, taking care of the ball is the most critical aspect of the game. They have the talent to stick with Xavier, particularly with a noisy Halton Arena backing them up. The question though is whether they can even get looks, since turnovers early in possessions has becoming a mounting problem for the team.

The Niners’ also need Derrio Green to snap out of his run of poor play. He’s far too talented to continue to struggle this much, so part of it might be mental. If it is, keep your head up Derrio. Niner Nation believes in you and will have the Bat Signal on, waiting for yet another super human performance. The Niners’ inside game should a field day -if the backcourt can get them the ball. Spears, Braswell, and Wilderness all had success in the first matchup and there’s no reason to believe the Xavier defense should be any more stout should we manage to get them the ball down low.

Oh, and I departed from our normal scheduling since I’ve already talked about Xavier’s personnel. As I’ve been droning on and on about, it’s the style of play that’s bothering the Niners the most right now. It’s beyond who’s on the roster and more how teams deal with the Niners. There’s no point re-hashing what we already know about Xavier.

Personally, I think we gut it out and win. I still believe in DiJuan Harris, and I don’t see how he could allow us to lose a must win game, particularly home coming. What do you think? Post your predictions in the comments and I’ll highlight them on the game day post. Anyone hits it on the head, and I’ll buy them a pitcher of beer (or some Green Kool-aid if you’re underage) at Picasso’s.

Well it’s about time! Niners return to the court and face Dukes.

NLP — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 02:26:03 +0000

Ron Everhart is looking for his spit can.

It’s been a long week off for Niner fans following the dismantling the team experienced against the Dayton Flyers last Wednesday at UD Arena. Fortunately the basketball gods (or the A10 office) have delivered salvation in the form of a hump day matchup against the Duquesne Dukes. Gametime is 7 PM in Halton Arena and the contest will be broadcast by CBS College Sports Regional.

The week off probably was a good thing for the Niners. When a team runs out to an 8-1 conference start and sole possession of 1st place only to see it come crashing down on the road in brutal fashion, the extra time between games is an opportunity to circle the wagons, regroup, and hopefully adjust. The principal adjustment that needs to be made? Clearly running the offense against strong man-to-man defense. It’s been the Achilles’ Heel of the team all season long. If you’re a head coach and you see Charlotte on the schedule, dial up the man defense. Until the Niners can make that adjustment and handle the pressure, they will continue to struggle in the half court. In particular DiJuan Harris and Shamari Spears, the two most experienced players on the team need to step and create opportunities for others to loosen the defense. Spears for his part has to recognize *BROKEN RECORD ALERT* the defense collapsing around him and kick it out to open players. Do it AS they collapse, not once they are already there. Custard couldn’t pass out of his last stand, why would Spears be able to?

As mentioned earlier, the Niners’ opponent on Wednesday are the ever enigmatic Dukes of Duquesne. The average fan (yes, I’m going there) might look at their 13-12 record and think mediocre team and expect a blowout. The Dukes are instead a very dangerous, yet inconsistent opponent. Most recently they exploded on La Salle with a blistering 103-82 victory; however, this performance immediately following a let-down 84-80 OT loss to UMass. So the question begs, which Duquesne team will show up Wednesday? If the 2-8 road record is any indication, most likely the team that last to UMass. But as this season has illustrated, the Niners can ill-afford to take the Dukes, or any team, for granted.

These Dukes are led by head coach Ron Everhart, who when not chewing tobacky is a fun coach to watch. He’s assembled a talented squad that while yet to transform into a consistent performer, has a lot of nice parts that can go off on any particular night. The cog in the engine for Duquesne is Jr. F Damian Saunders. On a contender, Saunders is probably the runaway A10 POY. He’s a double-double machine (14.9 ppg and 12.2 rpg.) who’s achieved lofty individual heights in the NCAAs, ranking 3rd in the nation in rebounding, 4th in steals, and 8th in blocks. Even more impressive is he does it all with just a 6’7″ frame. Saunders will be a handful on both ends of the court, but it will be fun to see how he matches up defensively on Shamari Spears. It’ll be a contrast of strength and craft versus freak athleticism. Let’s hope Spears wins out.

If the Dukes through up some tough M2M will the Niners pull a France?

Joining Saunders in the “post” (using the term loosely) is fellow Jr. Bill Clark. Clark is second on the team in both scoring (13.8) and rebounding (6.2), though the former comes at the expense of his arm practically falling off after every game. In other words, he shoots the three-ball with reckless abandon and only manages to convert on 1 in 4. For someone like him, 25-30 three pointers is a lot. He’s taken 133. Nice shot selection there, buddy. Of course against La Salle he goes 11-14 and scores 34 points. Wasn’t that supposed to happen against us?

Though Sr. guard Jason “Light” Duty has started much of the season, he will likely cede his starting role tomorrow to Melquan Bolding, who’s rounding back into form after a lengthy injury. Bolding is a nice young player but again suffers from poor shooting selection. He shoots overall at a 40.7% clip from the field, which is about the norm for a collegiate shooting guard. But his numbers are dragged down again by poor shooting from the arc (25.5%). On paper the Dukes remind me of the worst of the 08-09 team combined with the worst of the 02-03 team when it comes to three-point shooting.

B.J. Monteiro is touted as the Dukes best three point shooter. Brace yourselves folks: He shoots 33.3% from behind the arc.

Running the show for Duquesne is So. PG Eric Evans. Evans, like the other 4 scorers averages over 10 ppg. He also leads the team in assists and is 2nd in steals.

So there you have it, the Duquesne starters. For all intents and purposes, they’re the entire team, as like the Niners the starters do the bulk of the scoring for Ron Everhart’s squad. When looking at the teams stats, it’s easy to see where their struggles come from: 1) They can’t shoot a lick from outside, hitting only 25.5% as a team. 2) They’re awful from the line, hitting just 60.6% of their FTAs. 3) They’re woefully undersized and it shows: They’re tallest starter is 6’7″ Saunders. After that they run 6’5″ 6’5″ 6’3″ and 5’11″. This might be the first game since the scrub non-conf. games that the Niners have had a size advantage.

The Niners have a clear task at hand tomorrow: Take a game that could be dangerous, since Duquesne has the potential to explode offensively, and dominate it.

Despite Saunders being a terrific talent and consistent top-notch performer, the Niners have the size and capacity to dominate the game on the glass, and I expect them to. Sure Saunders will likely get 8-10, but the Niners need to have a sizeable rebounding margin, like +7 or greater and double-digit offensive rebounds.

Specifically I would expect to see plenty of zone again. Duquesne is a poor shooting team, and it only makes sense strategically to sag off the “shooters” and keep Saunders from going off inside.

One difference from the Dayton to Duquesne game I would like to see is in Derrio Green. He’s at his best when he’s both driving and shooting, not relying on the outside game. He also needs to show he can handle tough defensive pressure all game long.

Well Niner fans, it’s crunch time. The team simply can’t afford a home loss from here on out. Let’s start with Duquesne and build momentum going into Saturday.

Niners head to the Bronx looking to dehorn the Rams.

NLP — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 01:36:32 +0000

Personally I think it's been dead for a few.... years.

While there’s a Nor’easter in full effect in the Mid Atlantic there’s a different kind of warning being posted for Niners fans:

MONSTRA ALERT! MONSTRA ALERT!

Niners scheduled to play horrific, craptastic team in the next 24 hours. Expect periods of ineptitude approaching record highs. 100% chance of substantial RPI drop will occur as a wave of ugly basketball crosses the Rose Hill Gym court. Secure your possessions and seek shelter in a concrete fallout shelther no less than 1000 feet below surface should Niners face 2nd half deficit.

In a game that’s probably more likely to resemble a trip to the Bronx Zoo than a Division I basketball program, the Niners take on the Fordham Rams Saturday afternoon at 2 PM in a contest televised on MASN. The zoo analogy is pretty fitting for Fordham considering the season the Rams have been having, dating back to the spring letter the university’s administration sent to boosters claiming support for it’s coaches and basketball programs. Considering the financial meltdown it was kind of fitting in its timing considering many a bank that failed tried a similar strategy to placate investors.

The situation did not improve despite the announcement that Jio Fontan would return to the team and the arrival of heralded frosh post man Chris Gaston. Just five games and one win against lowly Sacred Heart later, Jio Fontan announced his transfer again, this time for good. One day later, out goes Dereck Whittenburg and Jared Grasso takes over the train wreck.

Things haven’t gotten much better -just 1 win and 14 more losses.

There are a couple of bright spots though, one being the aforementioned Gaston. Gaston has been nothing short of spectacular on a team where opponents know he’s going to be one of the two focal points of the offense. To average 17.8 ppg. and nearly 10.7 rpg. on an abysmal team is very impressive and Gaston will warrant serious consideration for A10 FOY (go Braswell). Extra impressive when you consider he’s listed at “just” 6’7″. Gaston does have areas to improve on though, such as shooting from outside (in other words, don’t) and turnovers (averaging over 4 tpg.). Part of the problem might be the fact he’s got so little around him and forces his shots and drives. Oh, and he’s on the market. LOL.

Gaston does have a pretty solid Sr. wingmate in Brenton Butler. The 6’3″ guard is scoring at a nice clip (15.7 ppg.) but it does come at the expense of a lot of shots (33% from the field and 31% from behind the arc). Again, it’s likely because he’s one of only realistic options on offense for the Rams.

After that the cupboard is pretty bare. Alberto Estwick (So.) and Lance Brown (Fr.) are a pair of nice young guards, but they’re not ready to carry the team or take significant weight off Gaston or Butler. Perhaps in a year or two, the Gaston/Estwick/Brown could form a nice nucleus, but it’s hard to envision that given the lack of support from Fordham.

As a team Fordham does _______________ well. Fill in the blank cause I can’t find anything. I guess you could say they play good perimeter defense since they limit teams to under 25% from behind the arc, but who cares? They’re 2-18.

The game itself really is a must-win for the Niners. Fordham is awful and to lose to them on the road would be devastating to the Niners’ at-large hopes. The good news is we’ve got some serious swagger and Phil Jones’ game is on an upswing ever since he circled the wagons emotionally after going through a rough patch in his life. GTG admires Big Phil for his resiliency.

What we the writers would like to see is a balanced attack on offense and respect for Fordham on defense. They’re awful, but we’re not in any position to take any team for granted. The stakes are way too high at this point of the season. Charles Dewhurst has been spectacular on the defensive glass of late and we will need him to keep that up in order to counter Chris Gaston. This will be particularly important since Chris Braswell will likely have his hands full trying to defend Gaston. With Braswell getting in early trouble with fouls against GW, his focus will be critical and Javarris Barnett and KJ Sherrill will have to be ready if called on to play key minutes.

All that being said, it’s reasonable to expect the Niners to win this game, and frankly, to demand it. They’ve shown mental toughness that’s been lacking for years over the last few games and as long as they stay focused and playing the way they’ve been, this should be an easy W. Let’s just not have an epidemic of turnovers in the first half this time, mkay?

Go Niners!

Niners look to extend winning streak against George Washington Colonoscopies.

NLP — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 04:08:46 +0000

The Niners are starting to heat up again during the heart of the season. Winners of 5 straight after losing 4 out of 6, the 49ers have positioned themselves in the thick of the A10 regular season title race and are in the mix for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2005. Their opponent Wednesday night, the George Washington Colonials, look to perhaps play spoiler to the Niners post-season hopes.

About those Colonials. We still owe them a couple, as they are ahead in the all-time series 10-9, with 4 of those wins coming on the Niners home courts. GW coach Karl Hobbs personally sports a 6-3 record against the Niners. The most recent matchup between the two squads came last season at the Smith Center in a game the Colonials won 92-88.

So far during the 2009-2010 campaign, results have been mixed for Karl Hobbs’ squad. Posting a 12-8 (2-5) record, the Colonials are still struggling to regain their NCAA tournament form; however, they are much improved and much more competitive than last year’s 10-18 (4-12) season.

Senior leadership for GW comes in the form Damien Hollis and Hermann Opoku . Opoku is principally a reserve F/C from Austria who in 17 minutes of action per game off the bench gives the Colonials a little over 4 points and 4 rebounds per game. The other Sr., Hollis, is GW’s leading scorer averaging 13.7 ppg. Hollis is 6’8″ F who’s really more of a wing forward in a PF’s body, and it’s evident in his shooting where he seems to like the long ball a little, but it doesn’t like him as he converts on just under 26% of his attempts from long range. Braswell and Spears would be well served to play off him a bit when he has the ball deep and let him shoot. Hollis does lead the team in rebounding with a whopping 5 rpg.

GW also starts a talented freshman SG in Lasan Kromah who at 6’5″ is the type of long guard that tends to give the Niners backcourt trouble. Though averaging just 10.9 ppg., he does it on 47.2% shooting from the field and a little over 39% from long range. It doesn’t take much of a hunch to see that Kromah likely has a lot of room to develop for GW and should be quite the player going forward.

Tony Taylor plays the starting PG position for GW. Tyalor hails from Sleepy Hollow, NY and is the 3rd leading scorer on the team with just under 9 ppg. He also leads the team in assists but that won’t happen when DiJuan Harris comes out on horseback and hits Taylor with a pumpkin. You watch, it’ll happen.

Aaron Ware starts at SF. He’s a So. from LA and gets roughly 7 ppg. and 3.6 rpg. in 20 min/game of action and isn’t a threat to shoot from deep. The starting C is Joseph Katuka. He’s tall (6’11″), doesn’t play much for a starter (12 mpg.) and doesn’t score much (5 ppg.). Wonder why he doesn’t play much? He’s got one less foul than Damien Hollis in half the time played. Martin Iti, eat your heart out.

George Washington is pretty unremarkable. They do some things well like rebound (+4) and defending (opponents shoot 40%) but they struggle to keep from fouling the opposition, something the Niners thrive on. GW is also a bit weak on the offensive glass and allows opponents to shoot the ball reasonably well from long-range -usually a sign they’re playing a good bit of zone. It’ll be interesting to see if they do that tomorrow and dare Derrio to shoot or will they resort to man-to-man which has been a sore-spot for the Niners to contend with on offense. With Derrio opening up his driving ability, and with the options the Niners have in the paint with Shamari Spears and Chris Braswell, it’s going to come down to a case of choosing one’s poison. This writer also wouldn’t mind a chance to get another look at Javarris Barnett and perhaps Gokhan Sirin. In particular Barnett is due for another look given his recent strong play.

Hobbs might be turning things around but it’s not gonna happen this year, at least not in Halton Arena. This is a game the Niners should expect to control and win, though I wouldn’t expect GW to simply roll over and play Fordham for us. When things are going to get tricky is when the Niners have to head up to Foggy Bottom to play the Colonials in the Smith Center, but that’s for another column and a bottle of amphetamines.

Game #21 Niners at UMas….. OMG WINTERDEATHSTORM EVERYONE PANIC!

NLP — Sat, 30 Jan 2010 03:30:58 +0000

Potential 4-star recruit for Derek Kellog?

So while Charlotte is under siege from the white death falling from the sky, the Niners head up to Amherst to face the youthful and enigmatic Minutemen of UMass.

Personally I can’t stand UMass. Actually I can’t stand their fans. Last I knew universities themselves aren’t sentient. Anyway their fans crapped on us when we joined the league and they crapped on Shamari Spears when he transferred to Charlotte. It’s not all of them, but it’s the internet so I’m gonna exaggerate because I can. And yes, that does make it right. I will give them this: their band plays “Africa” by Toto and that’s pretty rad.

On to what’s important. The Niners are on a roll and they look to keep their winning ways going Saturday evening against UMass, televised by ESPNU.

The Minutemen (8-12, 2-4) broke a 5 game losing streak with a win an 87-80 road against Saint Joseph’s Wednesday. UMass is the epitome of chuck-and-duck basketball many have accused the Niners of playing in years past. Offensively they shoot the three. Frequently. As in 35th in the nation in attempts. Couple that with only 29.9% three-point field goal percentage and you have a lot of misses. A painful lot of them. Perhaps counter-intuitively they rebound the ball extremely well on the offensive glass, snagging a top-10 in the nation 15.2 offensive rpg. That makes for a lot of second chance scoring so despite the poor shooting percentages, they do manage to score a fairly impressive 71.2 ppg. The problem is they are the French military on defense, giving up a whopping 74.1 ppg which puts them at 302nd best in the nation. And sorry to any French readers out there. If it’s any consolation I like your beaches. One stat that really illustrates how awful they are on defense is the assist to turnover ratio for opponents (1.22, 333rd in the nation). They’re also dreadful at blocking shots but that’s not an essential stat for success (just like our lack of dunks) but taken together with the assist to turnover stat, it’s pretty evident they play matador defense.

It’s not as if UMass is devoid of talent. It’s actually quite the contrary. Problem is Derek Kellogg hasn’t quite figured out this coaching thing yet, but since he’s a former player and a Squid disciple, he’ll get a free pass for a good while. As for the personal, it’s hard to find a better guard in the A10 than Ricky Harris. For the third year in a row, the 6’2″ Sr. guard is averaging over 17 points a game. The problem is he’s taking far too many outside shots and hitting far too few (28.5%). In comparison he’s hitting 50.6% of his shots from inside the arc. Ricky, take it to the basket! Just not Saturday.

His fellow gun-slinging backcourt mate is Anthony Gurley, who is in his second season at UMass by way of Wake Forest. Problem is he’s more Barney Fife than Pvt. Daniel Jackson as like Harris he’s hitting less than 30% of his 3-point attempts. Fortunately for him though he doesn’t take nearly as many outside shots as Harris, and gets the bulk of his 14 plus points from inside the arc and at the foul line. Two other frequent starters of note are Sean Carter and Terrell Vinson. Those names should be familiar to the Niner faithful as both were recruiting targets in the past for Charlotte. Vinson in particular looks like he’s going to be a player for UMass. The 6’7″ Fr. SF product of Baltimore is averaging 9.7 ppg. in his rookie campaign. Unfortunately for him though Kellogg’s offensive philosophy might be detrimental to his development as he takes quite a lot of 3 pointers (is this a theme or what?) and misses nearly 75% of them. It boggles the mind how any coach can be comfortable with a play that will 3 times out of 4 fail. Ladies and Gentlemen, the 2009-2010 UMass Minutemen!

Sean Carter is a 6’9″ So. F/C who’s playing his first season with UMass after transferring from Oregon State. Carter leads the team in rebounding at 6.3 rpg., with half of them coming on the offensive glass. A modest scorer at just about 5 ppg, Carter is a 48.8% shooter who *gasp* hasn’t taken a three-pointer this season. But before I go too far lauding his selectivity, I have to point out he’s just a 44.7% shooter from the FT line. The top player off the bench is another impressive Fr. in Freddie Riley. Riley is a 6’5″ swingman who’s averaging 10.5 ppg. who’s actually a respectable, if not great, three point shooter who converts on 37.4% of this attempts.

Although this is clearly a trap game for the Niners coming off the big win at Temple, this is a game they should and need to win. One of the absolute keys is to rebound the ball well. Chris Braswell, I’m pointing to you as our top defensive rebounder (ranked 11th in the country at defensive rebounding percentage according to kenpom.com). Another potential danger is the UMass transition game. Transition defense is an Achilles’s Heel for the Niners as they’ve struggled often to get back on defense against teams that like to get out into the open court. One other fear is the temptation to get into a three point shooting contest. Like with UMass, the 3 point shot is like heroin to Bobby Lutz-coached teams. This year’s team seems to be more disciplined, however, and the departure of Shamarr Bowden has only seemed to fortify that sense of discipline on offense. One thing I’d definitely like to see is more of Super Derrio. You know, the one who gets to the rim like a speeding locomotive? It’s been a joy to watch his balance of inside/outside play of late and I’m praying to see more of it. Defensively I think we should expect a lot of zone: force UMass to make some shots from outside, much like the case against Temple. And just like the game against the Owls, some early makes shouldn’t deter the strategy.

Game #19: Niners at Explorers

NLP — Sat, 23 Jan 2010 03:28:07 +0000

The Forty Niners take to the road again Saturday to play the La Salle Explorers at Tom Gola Arena. The Niners (13-5, 3-1) logged perhaps their most complete win of the season in their most recent game, besting Richmond on the road 71-59 to break a 4-game winning streak for the Spiders against Charlotte. For La Salle (10-8, 2-2), the Explorers enter the game coming off a 19-point win against fellow Big 5 school Penn. For the Niners, Saturday’s game represents an opportunity to get a quality, road victory against a conference foe -something that has been at a premium over the 5 seasons the Niners have competed in the A10.

The Explorers would like to call themselves a veteran squad, but unfortunately injuries have continued to take a toll on the team. Sr. SG Ruben Guillandeaux remains out with a stress fracture in his right foot suffered in Charleston. This is a big loss as he brought size (6’6″), scoring (10+ ppg.), shooting (>30% career 3 pt shooter), and play making (3+ apg.) to the Explorers backcourt. Another La Salle Sr. struggling with an injury is Kimmani Barrett. Barrett has missed the last three games with a sprain to his right foot (do La Salle players only have right foot injuries) and is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game. When available, Barrett does a lot of good things for the Explorers from the SF position, scoring 13.3 ppg. with solid shooting from both the field (46.4%) and from behind the arc (37.9%).

La Salle does have two excellent Srs. that are still healthy in Yves Mekongo and Rodney Green. Mekongo in particular has scored well of late averaging 14.5 ppg. over the last 4 games; however, his shooting has suffered as he’s under 40% for the first time in his career. As for Rodney Green, well he’s nothing short of a beast. The current active leading scorer in the A10 has not disappointed his Sr. campaign averaging just under 18 ppg. along with 5 rpg. and just over 4 apg.

The principle newcomer to the Explorer squad is highly regarded Fr. C Aaric Murray. Murray has certainly not disappointed in his debut, putting up over 12 points a game, leading the team with 7.2 rpg., and blocking over 2 shots a game. Murray is also very well rounded offensively, having the ability to step out and shoot the three effectively, leading the team at 46.5% from behind the arc (of players in the regular rotation). He will definitely be a handle to defend as the Niners have not faced many players this season with his combination of polish and brawn.

The Explorers aren’t particularly deep (due to injuries for one) and play 3 guys more than 35 minutes a game. While they do have a significant size advantage at most positions (Rodney Green is the “shortest” starter at 6’5″), the lack of depth is a problem and could lead to fatigue. Though La Salle does do a good job of limiting fouls compared to the opposition they turn the ball over considerably more than foes. DiJuan Harris and Derrio Green with their speed advantage may be able to harass taller players handling the ball in the open court and the perimeter, though for the latter I expect us to be playing a lot of zone to limit the size advantage.

La Salle will also pose a strong challenge on the boards, especially the offensive glass if the Niners opt for mostly zone defense. The Explorers are outrebounding the opposition by 6.5 rpg. (the Niners only outrebound opponents by 2.8 per game).

Saturday’s game will be difficult for the Forty Niners, but it is winnable. The Niners will have to do several things well to win this game, and avoid a few others.

Keys for Charlotte:

Rebound the ball well. I expect another slugfest like the previous two conference games the Niners have played. Winning the rebound battle probably means winning the game.
Limit turnovers. La Salle doesn’t force a lot of turnovers and as long as we’re patient in the half court like we were against Richmond that shouldn’t be a problem.
Work for open shots in the halfcourt and push the ball when transition opportunities present themselves. We have a speed advantage and they have a turnover issue.

Keys for La Salle:

Force the issue inside to get the Niners in foul trouble.
Crash the boards and dominate the rebounding game.
Limit turnovers by controlling tempo.

I don’t want to take this game for granted, because I don’t. La Salle is well coached, has considerable talent, and a significant size advantage. But the Niners seem to be playing a style of basketball that reminds me more of the 98-99 team I cherish and less of the chuck-and-duck style we abhor. It’ll also be interesting to see how much, if any, playing time Javarris Barnett and Gokhan Sirin get after playing well against Richmond. The former especially.

Niners prepare for annual root canal, face Richmond Spiders

NLP — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 03:11:45 +0000

It’s never fun to play the Richmond Spiders under the cruel tutelage of Chris Mooney. They’re exactly what banes the Niners most: a team focused on precision, execution, backdoor cuts, and screens galore. Since taking the helm in 2005, Richmond has won 5 of 8 against the Niners, including the last 4. That’s going to have to change if the Niners have any hopes of making an A10 run to get into the picture for an at-large berth to the NCAA tournament.

Offensively Richmond does a lot of things fairly well but nothing particularly great. They do have an outstanding backcourt duo though in Kevin Anderson and David Gonzalvez. Gonzalvez, a Sr., typically plays the shooting guard position for Richmond and is putting up 13.4 ppg. His shooting from long range has dropped off a bit from seasons past (36% in 09-10 versus better than 40% the previous two years) but remains a dangerous threat on the perimeter. Perhaps suffering a bit from senioritis, his FT shooting has also dropped off considerably, converting on under 60% of his attempts at the charity stripe.

Anderson is perhaps the most complete point guard in the A10 and one of the best you’ll find on any roster. Anderson is averaging 18.4 ppg., tops on the Richmond squad, and is solid if not spectacular from behind the arc. He’s also steady at the line hitting over 80% of his FTAs and leads the team in assists. Oh that’s right, I said complete. That means I need to mention his defense and team leading 2.2 steals/game. Given our tendency to turn the ball over against tight man-to-man, particularly in the halfcourt offense, Anderson could have a field day if the Niners are not careful with the ball.

He totally deserves a big photo smack in the middle of the article.

The Richmond starting frontcourt gets the bulk of the remaining 68.2 ppg. that Richmond averages after Gonzalvez and Anderson. Out on the wing the Spiders start 6’7″ Sr. Ryan Butler. Though not a prolific scorer or rebounder, Butler does a little bit of it all for Richmond averaging 7.7 ppg. and 3.3 rpg. He also shoots better than 80% from the foul line and hits over 30 percent of his 3 point attempts. In the post, the Spiders start Justin Harper, a 6’10″ Jr. who leads the team in rebounding with 5.8/game and is third on the team in scoring at 9.7 ppg. He’s joined in the post by former all A10 player Dan Geriot who sat out last season recovering from a knee injury. Judging by the drop in his stats it’s arguable he’s not all the way back yet, with a sizeable drop in scoring, shooting percentage, and rebounds/game. Though the scoring could be attributable to the development of other players like Anderson and Gonzalvez, it’d stand to reason his shooting percentage and rebounding would stay the same, if not increase. Regardless, he’s still a highly skilled player that will keep the Niners busy in the paint.

At the start of the article I mentioned that Richmond does a few things well on offense but nothing great. What they do great however is play defense. Richmond opponents are averaging just 61.4 ppg. and 38.5% shooting from the field, the latter being good for 21st best in the nation. Richmond also generates a lot of steals (see Anderson) and blocks a lot of shots. Leading shot blocker Darrius Garrett gets 2.2 bpg. in just 14 minutes/game off the bench.

Facing a tough defense on the road from a team that seems to have the Niners’ number of late, a number of things are going to have to happen for the men in green to pull out a win. Making this more difficult are mounting roster losses, this time the very unfortunate career-ending knee injury SF Rashad Coleman suffered scoring a key layup in the win over Saint Louis (you’ll be missed Rashad). Ther Niners are going to have to reverse the trend of poor ball-handling and passing to have any chance of victory. Richmond is too good as it is picking up steals and the Niners are seemingly too willing to give the ball up. Not a particularly good recipe. Hopefully DiJuan Harris can continue his strong play of late and take good care of the basketball as Richmond is sure to know the scouting report on us and exploit some glaring weaknesses. Derrio Green will also have to do a much better job with ball handling, being more of a PG when he moves over to spell DiJuan and not just a shooting guard who brings the ball up. I do however love what he’s doing in transition and off the dribble of late. Borderline unstoppable off the dribble.

In the post, Shamari Spears must must must must must must must start recognizing double and triple teams and pass out to open guys on the perimeter. I say this every pregame. I will continue saying it every pregame until he does. Too many points are left on the court trying to force the ball up over two or three defenders, resulting in unlikely to convert attempts and stripped balls. As for Chris Braswell and An’Juan Wilderness, they just need to be themselves. Both continue to be steady interior options for the Niners.

Where the Niners really need help on offense is from the bench. With Bowden transferring and Coleman out, the options continue to dwindle. KJ Sherrill and Sirin Gokhan are showing more comfort in their limited minutes but aren’t ready to contribute on a regular basis. Charles Dewhurst seems like he has the tools but also seems unwilling to showcase them. Ian. Well if he’s hot that’s great but it simply hasn’t happened this year and he’s been mostly a sieve on defense. That leaves Javarris Barnett, who while being intriguing in what he does when he’s on the court, simply does not get enough minutes to really be an option as well. Until something changes, bench scoring is going to be a major concern for the Niners now and going forward.

This will be a difficult game for Charlotte and one that we’re certainly going to be underdogs. While the task is large, it’s certainly not insurmountable. The Niners must take care of the ball, work for open shots, and keep Kevin Anderson under control. If the Niners are going to have any hopes to make the NCAA tournament, these are games that they are going to have to start winning. Tomorrow night sounds like a good time to start.

Game #17: Saint Louis at Charlotte

NLP — Sun, 17 Jan 2010 03:46:40 +0000

Raise your hand if you're the stupidest mascot in the nation.

Sunday afternoon the St. Louis (just kidding run49er), I mean Saint Louis Billikens take to the Halton Arena floor to square off against our beloved Charlotte 49ers (11-5). The Billikens enter the game sporting the same 11-5 record on the Niners but enter the contest with a 2-0 conference record. Saint Louis has defeated Richmond at home and most recently posted an impressive double-overtime win at Duquesne.

A welcome addition to svelte Head Coach Rick Majerus’ squad is freshman import Cody Ellis. Ellis, a 6’8″ power forward finally received clearance to play by the NCAA (we know how that goes) and has posted a 12 point average in two games coming off the bench. Despite being unproven in live game action, Ellis has logged an average of 27 minutes in this two games, and has pulled down 8 rpg. His addition brings a very welcome addition for Saint Louis and changes the complexion of the team as well as how teams will have to prepare for them.

As young as the Xavier squad was that the Niners fell to on Wednesday, Saint Louis is even younger. With Paul Eckerle out with a pre-season knee injury, the Billikens are comprised of entirely Freshmen and Sophomores. According to Ken Pomeroy, that makes the Billikens 2nd least experienced team in the nation. Leading the Billikens in scoring is So. PG Kwamain Mitchell, who puts up 16.2 ppg. on 46.6% shooting from the field and 36.1% from behind the arc. Giving the Billikens good inside balance to go with Mitchell is post man Willie Reed. Reed is also a So., and averages 12.8 ppg. and 8.6 rpg. giving Saint Louis along with Ellis a pair of very good, young post players.

Rounding out the main starting unit for Saint Louis are wing players Brian Conklin (7.8 ppg.) and Christian Salecich (7.6 ppg.). Coming off the bench to give the Billikens a boost from the perimeter is diminutive Fr. G Justin Jordan. Jordan hits on 40% of his 3-point attempts and contributes 6.6 ppg. in just over 20 minutes a game.

As a team, Saint Louis provides a stark contrast to the Niners’ style of play, preferring a slower tempo and grinding out victories. Saint Louis “only” averages 64.3 ppg. and limits the opposition to 58.5 ppg. More impressive is their ability to force defenses into poor shooting, limiting them to just 38.0% from the field and 26.3% from the 3-point line. The Billikens do have some weaknesses though that the Niners can hope to exploit. Though a respectable team at blocking shots, Saint Louis does not excel at rebounding, allowing the opposition to out-rebound them by about 1.3 rpg. Chris Braswell and KJ Sherrill could have big games on the glass, as the Niners will likely need plenty of second-chance scoring to overcome the Billikens’ excellent floor defense.

Additionally, Saint Louis is a bit suspect from the line, particularly at the F positions, where they convert just 63% of their attempts from the charity stripe. If players like Phil Jones and Shamari Spears get beat on defense, strong fouls might be a better alternative to giving up the easy basket. Of course, that’s not a good strategy if it leads to following out or extended stretches on the bench, of course.

For the Niners, some consistency in scoring is absolutely needed. Though DiJuan Harris appears to be breaking out of his funk, Derrio Green needs to utilize better shot selection lest he fall in a slump of his own. The Niners can ill-afford another 0-9 performance behind the arc from Green, particularly with the defection of Shamarr Bowden. As for Shamari Spears, I’m going to be a broken record. When he gets the ball early in the possession he’s deadly. If he’s not double or triple teamed, that is. If he does receive pressure after the catch, he absolutely must do a better job of getting the ball back out, whether it’s to a backdoor player, a slasher like An’Juan Wilderness, or back out to the guards. Too often has he forced the ball up in a crowd either missing the shot or getting stripped. That’s not to say he’s a poor player; Shamari has been terrific. But he can’t be his best until he can also use the attention he draws in the post to make his teammates get better scoring opportunities.

Two other players to keep an eye on are Fr. F Gokhan Sirin and So. F Javarris Barnett. Both received more action in the Xavier game and this trend may continue as the Niners look to replace the perimeter offense of Bowden. Sirin in

Rick is bringing sexy back.

particular, despite missing all his attempts against the Musketeers, continues to look more comfortable in the offensive flow. One can only hope more opportunities leads to more improvement. As for Barnett, it’s hard not to notice that he tends to do good things in the few minutes he receives. Against Xavier he drilled a 3 in the corner that was waived off due to an offensive foul, and hit a little flip shot in the paint while collecting 2 rebounds in just 6 minutes. Though he’s neither a true guard or true forward, his blend of skill and size can potentially lead to matchup problems in the time when he’s on the court.

Another player to keep a watch on is Wilderness, who is shooting a sizzling 63.9% from the field since his return from an early season calf injury. Though Wilderness continues to struggle at the line, he is a terror around the rim and is probably the Niners best finisher close to the basket.

This game is going to be tougher than some anticipate. A very young Saint Louis squad continues to improve and the addition of Cody Ellis will only help. If the contest was at Chaifetz, I’d put this down as a loss, but I think the Niners go to 2-1 in A10 play by grinding out a victory tomorrow afternoon. The rebounding of Braswell and the rest of the squad will be the determining factor, as the Niners will prevail in a game that will probably be ugly in terms of scoring and field goal percentage.

Oh, and kennethhouck gave a little tid bit in the comments to the X game that I’m going to pass along to anyone who hasn’t seen it.

Tough loss to X.

For St. Louis, do you know what a Billiken is? It’s a Blue Demon. Do you know why SLU has a Blue Demon? Did you see the Exorcist? The movie is based on a real story. The real exorcsim was in a building on the SLU campus. No one goes in the room where the exorcism takes place. It’s sealed up. A window cleaner was on the fire escape cleaning windows, & went down to the floor to clean the outside of the window of the sealed room. He was scared s**tless when he saw a blue demon in the room.
The Niners will have to perform a real life exorcism to beat Rick “tub of lard” Majerus. SLU always has tough defense. We had a game there one time where both were in the 30′s with 3 minutes to go.
Pick: Niners 13, Scary A** Window 12.

We’ll move this to the predictions tomorrow when J Felt gets off his butt and writes it. Or gets on his butt. I really don’t want to know in what state of being he writes his articles now that I think about it. I’m going to go bleach my eyes now.